Inter Miami's MLS Cup rivals beware - Lionel Messi is entering 'scary hours' in what could be his last dance with Luis Suarez

It's hard to tell whether Lionel Messi got lucky or not. But that's probably the point. When he rose between two New England Revolution defenders to knock a loose ball that spun tantalizingly in the air, it seemed like Messi was trying to knock the ball to himself. It looked like one of those signature moments. A flash of genius. The touch that no one else saw.

Instead, the ball deflected backwards, spinning off the Argentine's head and kindly into the path of German Berterame, who lept and nodded home. That "assist" knotted Miami's Eastern Conference clash with New England at one apiece. A wonderful second, this time a sort of goal, handed the Herons a win.

And so we have entered what only can be described as "scary hours." There are times when Messi moves beyond human footballing capacity, when this wonderful Argentine becomes something else - reaching levels of magic that cannot be rationally explained nor easily understood. There was the goal against Real Madrid, where a routine Sergio Busquets layoff became a mazing run past five of the best defensive players on the planet. There was the assist against the Netherlands, where Messi played a pass that even he, quite literally, did not see.

These days, it's something different. This is now high-effort Messi. This is the type of player that presses, runs, and wills his way to victory. The athletic capacity has waned. The legs are less active. Welcome to Leo with the handbrake off, the bit where all of the flaws in this team are forgotten thanks to the magic of one magisterial footballer.

Still a statistical marvel

This is not to say that Messi's season to date has been poor. His 2025 campaign was the best in MLS history, by some distance. He set new league records for goal contributions, goals per 90 minutes and multi-goal games. In 43 appearances in all competitions, Messi had a hand in 69 goals.

2026 has been a more complicated year. The stats are still awfully compelling: Forty-two goal involvements in 30 games. But there have been some challenges in between. The World Cup was a physical and emotionally taxing tournament for Messi, so much so that he retired from Argentina international duty after his side fell to Spain in the final. He grieved rather publicly after the death of his father, something that should not be over-analyzed, but no doubt is the kind of off-field adversity that could impact performance. He is also, quite remarkably, 39 years old.

In that context, then, what we're looking at is even more impressive. To be sure, his numbers have "dropped off", but to average 1.4 goal involvements per game at his age - in any league - is immense.

An immense month

But perhaps the most foreboding thing here, at least for the rest of MLS, is how Messi has been scoring goals over the last month. To be sure, some teams have figured out how to limit him a bit. Cincinnati didn't allow him a shot on target - yes, that's an achievement - in a 2-2 draw on Oct. 28.

Yet otherwise, Messi's propensity to "turn it on" has been clear to see. A clear trend has appeared of late: Messi is scoring second-half goals. He scored after the break against New England, Atlanta, and DC United. This sport is usually complex, defined by attacking systems, player movements, and technical combinations to form a fleshed-out team. But it can also, at times, be frighteningly simple: Messi is showing up when it counts.

That was true, too, at the World Cup. Argentina lacked the talent and verve that led them to a 2022 World Cup. The same group of players got four years older and lost a bit of shine, too. Messi consistently played hero, bagging two assists to beat England in the semifinal, scoring against Egypt in the Round of 16, and finding the net to see off Cape Verde before that.

A repeat of last year?

This all comes at a time when Miami, as a football team, are distinctly lacking. This is a struggling side full of holes.

Center back remains an issue. There isn't a clear vision at either full back position. And as much as Messi has shown a bit more industry and energy in his pressing, they are still far too easy to play through. They are 18th in the league in goals conceded per 90 minutes - hardly the mark of cup champions. They are also 23rd in tackles made, 24th in xG conceded, and 29th in successful clearances (although that last number may be skewed by their propensity to play out of the back rather than knock the ball long). Yet, simultaneously, their attacking numbers are elite. No team in MLS has scored more goals. No team has put more shots on target, either. It's quite baffling how imbalanced they are.

They concede silly goals. They don't run enough. Casemiro, the big acquisition in central midfield, has been deployed at center back - such is the lack of confidence new manager Kily Gonzalez has in his current options.

But this is familiar territory. Last year, Miami were in a frighteningly similar situation. Sure, the personnel were tweaked - Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba were still contributing at a high level. But some of the same principles remained. They were not a complete team. Then-manager Javier Mascherano tweaked his side, but struggled to find the right balance, even as his side marched to an MLS Cup win. Then, as now, all of the major defensive stats - tackles made, xG conceded, goals conceded - were among the bottom half in the league. They finished third in the East - and but for a late burst of form might have lost home field advantage from the first round of the playoffs. Anyone

And then came Messi. In six playoff games, he provided 15 goal contributions. Miami found the net 20 times en route to the Cup win. Messi had a hand in all but five of them.

Other contenders?

This year, though, the opposition looks tougher - especially in the East. It's easy to miss amid the noise around Miami, but Nashville SC have put together the most successful campaign in MLS regular season history. Any kind of result against FC Cincinnati this weekend will see them set a new points record. They could set new league bests in wins, goal difference and clean sheets. They have lost just three times in MLS this season and are undefeated at home. There really could not be a more difficult opponent in their pursuit of back-to-back Cup wins.

But these are the kinds of situations, especially in the playoffs, where Miami tend to grab results. Last year they weren't favored, either. Even in the MLS Cup final, when the Herons had rolled through the East, there was a real chance that Vancouver could have beaten them.

There is an added sense of urgency, too. Messi may have signed a new contract to stay in Miami for at least another 18 months, but he has dropped hints that he might not stay in the sport much longer. When he will retire remains an open question. Luis Suarez, meanwhile, looks unlikely to return next year despite his unexpected resurgence this season. With uncertainty surrounding both stars, this could be the longtime teammates’ final chance to lift MLS Cup together.

From a standings point of view, there are a number of teams better than Miami. But as history has shown, that might be exactly why Messi carries them to the MLS Cup.